Description
Over the 2025-2029 time period, Rystad Energy expects liquefaction projects that have final investment decision (FID) approval to add an average of 2.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) of demand annually, outpacing the 1.9 Bcfd average from the first wave of US liquefaction development in 2016-2020.
As such, the key question around North American gas supply has pivoted from understanding how producers will navigate low prices this year to which companies and basins are best placed to capitalize on this long-term growth in demand.
This presentation explores the relative contributions from four key sources (basins) of gas supply: Appalachian plays, the Haynesville shale, the Permian Basin and other US gas plays. Overall, we expect limited Appalachian growth due to infrastructure constraints. A decelerating pace of Permian increases is expected due to company consolidations and an oil market in backwardation – where current prices are higher than those for 2025-26 delivery.
Other gas plays are likely to grow modestly, but not at the scale needed to satisfy growing LNG export demand. As a result, Rystad Energy expects Henry Hub prices to rise to a level sufficient to sustain a growth pace of about 1 Bcfd annually in the Haynesville shale.
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